TELDOK Report 94E: IT Myths—A Summary of the 15 IT Myths

A Summary of the 15 IT Myths 1 We can save time, we can save money, we can save the environment—we can telework instead of commuting! The myth: Travel electronically, speak via telephone, use video transmissions, invest in e-mail, fax, and computer-aided teleconferences. Then of course travelling will considerably decrease. And there will be no need for people to gather in offices and city centres. The reality: It turns out that increased electronic communication actually increases travel. With this kind of communication you reach so many more people, and thus have to maintain many more contacts—mostly electronically. Nonetheless now and then you have to meet in person, physically. 2 The more information, the better! The myth: The well-informed person has more power, can choose and be in command, and runs less risk of being manipulated. A democratic, just society presumes equal and full access to information for all. Information for the people, each and everyone! The reality: The uninformed person risks drowning in large quantities of unsorted, irrelevant, stress—creating information. An effective way of manipulation might very well be to drown a person without information tools with an overwhelming flood of information. 3 Optical fibres are a must The myth: The development has been rapid from ordinary telephone wires to optical fibres with enormous capacity, from signal-carrying electrons to photons, light that fills the same function that electrons used to. Consequently, everybody everywhere needs access to optical fibres to be on top, to be competitive. The reality: There are many different ways of transmitting signals, of sending information. Sometimes it is better to send through the air rather than through either an electronic or optical cable. Furthermore, the quantity of information to be transmitted can be reduced by coding the signals. What then is gained in smaller quantities of information transmission is compensated for by more computer power at both ends of the connection. The reality is that there are many technical solutions complementing each other. With too much concentration on only one possible solution, a region, a company, or an organisation risks becoming less competitive rather than more. 4 It is possible to control the passage of bits at the borders The myth: Just as we can control other official monetary transactions, it is possible to control the flow of money over borders. The fact that it is now handled electronically makes no difference except that the tool of the transfer has changed, and thereby the equivalent tool for currency control. The reality: The transfer of economic means, currency and trade transactions is only one part of a gigantic electronic traffic over the borders. The global currency stream itself is in turn several tenfold larger than the actual trade volume. Data can be concealed in ways impossible to detect. Only superficially is it possible to maintain a pretence of control. 5 You’re stuck with *21# The myth: Technology is never user-friendly. Just look at those unmanageable video controls, just look at the telephones and their instruction manuals for new and at times clever functions with... was it *#21# or #*12*...? Only complex apparatus can be made that nobody except a computer enthusiast or a certified engineer can handle. The reality: It is true that much technology is difficult, complicated and inaccessible for the amateur and first-time user. But this is only a transition phase, partly because the technology in the initial stage is expensive, and partly because it needs to find its way, to discover what the user actually wants and how the user reacts, and lastly also because the technicians themselves need to be trained to take the user into consideration. 6 We don’t have to think, AI and expert systems are taking over The myth: People think like computers, and consequently computers are learning to think like people. But faster, with larger memory capacity. It is only a matter of time before Man is beaten. In many special areas this has already happened, to economic benefit. The reality: Human thinking turned out to be complex in an entirely different way than was initially thought at the introduction of AI, artificial intelligence. What are feelings? What does the interaction between body and mind involve? New computers and program systems take as a starting point new discoveries of how people see, perceive and think. But if this will make for thinking computers is much more a matter of debate today than it was before. Just as the more modest expert systems in many cases have turned out to be media stunts rather than real killer applications. 7 Video conferences are always expensive, difficult to arrange — demand huge bandwidth The myth: Many ambitious and costly attempts were made, beginning in the 1970’s, to introduce videophony. None have succeeded. The technology is simply too expensive and too complicated and doesn’t answer to a demand that would motivate the costs even in the future. The reality: As happens with everything else in information technology videophony costs are declining. Or you could say that comfort and quality increase without additional cost. Just as was the case with telephones and fax machines a certain critical mass must be reached before videophony can have mass appeal. Just like personal computers it could be a mass product in a cheap version with limited quality. In a high-quality version it could be run on closed networks within organisations, waiting for that critical mass to build up—which gains support from people getting used to the cheaper version. 8 Telecommunication systems are sluggish and unchangeable The myth: Telecommunication systems represent large, heavy, long-term investments. They take decades to write-off. Systems take time to build up and they are expensive to renew, i.e., progress will be sluggish and slow. The reality: What was once the ultimate truth is no longer so. Telecommunication systems are no longer necessarily electrical wiring, but can be light-waves and radio. Telephone stations do not have to be connected buildings with big obvious machines, but can be decentralised hardware located where appropriate. A local telephone exchange can be virtual, functions can be spread out and allocated in the distributed, decentralised ”system” even though it appears to be in the hands of the person operating it. Software is the key to the various functions. 9 Society will be paperless The myth: The mechanical calculator was swept away by the electronic one, the cash register, as was the electromechanical telephone station by electronic competitors. Now, when it is cheaper to store information electronically than on paper, and easier to search using computer search tools, paper will disappear. The office will be paperless, school will be paperless—society will be paperless. The reality: Development of computers and electronics has brought with it a deluge of paper. Paper seems to have certain qualities that suit people, which we perceive as comfortable. And paper is still cheap enough, so it doesn’t matter that it costs a bit more than electronic memories. 10 Factories will be fully automated, completely without staff The myth: Technology replaces people. Robots are cheaper, more efficient, more precise, more obedient, more predictable in the long run. The natural extension of the increasingly roboticised factories is that they become fully automated. This has already happened with a few factories and some warehouses. (The myth can be generalised even further, to include for example the retail trade.) The reality: Technology can do more and more, and is becoming more robust and generally programmable—that’s true. But its target is moving; new technology makes for new possibilities and for this reason demands more not only from technology itself but also from people. The point is that people, unlike robots, are unpredictable, flexible and creative! The goal isn’t to get rid of people but to produce things with a function, that can be sold and used. 11 IT Investments have declined considerably The myth: We can see clear and worrying declines in corporate investments. It means an unsure financial future, and weakened power to compete internationally. The reality: It is true that investments have declined considerably—the way they are measured. However, the problem is that the measuring methods, the way investments are defined, lags behind reality. Because today a large and growing portion of investments goes to knowledge and information, to market communication and branding, to IT software and hardware, to training and development of the organisation. These costs are not counted as investments—but they are investments. 12 Give Me A Lot of Dense Data and ANYTHING Can Be Calculated! The myth: Given computers that are big enough, fast enough, have enough memory and are furnished with data dense enough—well, then anything can be calculated. It is just a matter of time before we have reached that point. The reality: Something happened on the road to the perfect calculation. This something was called chaos mathematics. The very equations which apply to physical reality are insoluble without the simplifications of practical calculus. The results are also entirely dependent on infinitesimal—yes, actually infinitesimal—changes in the starting-point, in the initial starting conditions. 13 We Have Entered the Information Society! The myth: If we merely calculate the employment and turnover statistics correctly, we will see that our economy is an information economy. Our society is an information society, where information and information technology are the completely basic activities—those that have replaced the industrial society. The reality: Everything is a matter of statistics. Information will not survive on its own, it is dependent on other activities and structures. Using the term information runs the risk of putting the focus on information technology. Information is an unclear concept—what differentiates it from knowledge or data? What is common for amusement parks for entertainment and information about bank accounts, or the weather. 14 Minitel has been and still is a great success The myth: Minitel, the French computer terminal and its system, has become an enormous success. Millions of terminals, tens of thousands of different kinds of services, large usage, profitability. The reality: The terminals have been distributed free of charge, there are a few services which are responsible for the major part of the traffic. The services do pay off for those who sell them and for France Telecom. The questions is whether the investment itself will ever pay off. The fact that the figures are darkened suggests that there is something wrong. It’s a whole different matter that the Minitel perhaps was a good idea—for its time. However, today’s basic demand for services is carried out through other terminals and networks, simply because technology has moved ahead. 15 The infrastructure of information is like roads and railroads The myth: Information technology such as mainframe computers and telephone systems is today’s equivalence of yesterday’s ports, canals, railroads, highways. Therefore the same characteristics apply: slow-moving, big investments, conditions for society’s competition and success. The reality: Ports and roads are needed so that the means of transportation, ships and cars, can do some good. Lots of ships create a line, lots of cars create traffic jams. It is the reverse with information systems—the benefit increases with more telephones, faxes, PCs. That makes program development and education more important. Focus is moved from the heavy visible infrastructure to the invisible human and cultural ultrastructure. Back to the Table of Contents for Report 94E: IT Myths fab.se/"> http://www.teldok.framfab.se/ teldok@ett.se TELDOK, Telia Research AB, Affärsanalys, D241, S-123 86 FARSTA Sidan senast uppdaterad 15 november 1996 av PG Holmlöv (pg.x.holmlov@telia.se), 08 713 5129.